Syria, An Expected Tragedy

by Sergei Kozhemyakin, political analyst for Pravda

December 13-16, 2024  

The overthrow of the Syrian government resulted from conspiracies by regional and international players—primarily Turkey, Israel, and the United States. By handing the country over to terrorist groups, they created an explosive situation throughout the region.

Leaders of Terrorism

Just as an untreated disease can lead to severe complications after temporary relief, unresolved security threats carry the risk of new eruptions. Syria has experienced this bitter truth. Between 2016 and 2019, Syrian government forces, supported by Iran, Russia, and Hezbollah, managed to reclaim most of the country from the rebels. However, the operation was incomplete, not due to military weakness but due to international conspiracies. External intervention not only fueled the civil war but was decisive. Even after drastic changes, external influence did not vanish but merely changed forms.

Foreign powers—those that supported Damascus and those that opposed it—agreed on a compromise. The United States maintained its presence in the northeast, relying on the predominantly Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Turkey tightened its grip on Idlib Province in the northwest and several border areas in the north. Meanwhile, under an agreement with Bashar al-Assad's government, Russian units and Iranian military advisors remained in the country.

This status quo cannot last indefinitely. Maintaining footholds by countries that sought to overthrow the legitimate government and supported militants served one purpose: to wait for the right moment and strike back. Damascus understood this well. Idlib, where numerous opposition organizations are entrenched, remained a particular concern. This included both relatively moderate factions and overtly terrorist groups, including detachments of foreign fighters—Chechens, Uyghurs, Tajiks, etc. This entire mix was often in conflict with each other. By 2020, the dominant group controlling the province was Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS, a terrorist organization banned in Russia). Having emerged from Al-Qaeda, HTS was previously known as Jabhat al-Nusra, which advocates for jihad and the establishment of a global Islamic caliphate.

Attempts to Eliminate the Terrorist Nest

In 2019–2020, government forces made several attempts to eliminate this "terrorist nest," but each time the results were the same. Turkey pressured participants in the "Astana format," especially Russia, to restrain Damascus, in exchange for promises to disarm extremists and halt their attacks. It’s worth recalling that Idlib was declared a "de-escalation zone" under Turkey’s control. However, Ankara was in no hurry to restore order. Since the early years of the Syrian conflict, Turkey had found common ground with militants by financing and arming the rebels. Turkish forces established a foothold in Idlib and set up full-fledged military bases disguised as "observation posts." The region became entirely dependent on Turkish aid, including natural gas, electricity, food supplies, and less peaceful goods.

By exploiting the "Kurdish terrorism" narrative, Ankara extended control over other regions in northern Aleppo and Raqqa provinces. Officially, these areas are under the control of the Syrian opposition and the "interim government" established by Turkey, headquartered in Gaziantep. In practice, the regions were turned into protectorates. Real power lies with "advisors" reporting to Turkish governors of neighboring provinces such as Hatay, Mardin, and Gaziantep. These areas are integrated into Turkey’s electricity grid, use the Turkish lira, and have introduced mandatory Turkish language education in schools. Mosques are being built, and imams are trained by Turkey’s Directorate of Religious Affairs.

Turkey enjoys full support from rebel factions in these areas, united under the banner of the "Syrian National Army." The Turkish regime deploys them wherever it has expansionist interests—be it Libya or Karabakh. Turkish propaganda convinces its citizens that northern Syria (like northern Iraq, Greek islands in the Aegean, and other territories) was illegally taken from the country. In 2020, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan justified supporting Idlib militants in battles against government forces by declaring, "We are not guests there but hosts."

A Stab in the Back

Did Moscow realize it was planting a ticking time bomb by aiding Ankara? Certainly. But pragmatic interests, such as exporting "blue fuel" and the prospects of a joint gas hub, compelled them to turn a blind eye.

For the same reasons, Russia acted as a mediator in Ankara’s initiative to restore diplomatic relations with Damascus. A few months ago, Turkey invited Assad—previously labeled a "tyrant practicing state terrorism"—to negotiate, urging Moscow to influence him. Assad did not dismiss the idea but conditioned talks on Turkey withdrawing from occupied territories and ending its support for militants. He stressed, "You cannot solve a problem without addressing its root causes." Ankara rejected these fair conditions, insisting on maintaining a "security belt" in northern Syria and demanding Damascus reach an agreement with the opposition. Essentially, Turkey sought approval for its territorial acquisitions.

After being rebuffed, Ankara resumed confrontation. On November 11, Erdoğan defiantly walked out during Assad’s speech at a joint Arab League and Organization of Islamic Cooperation summit in Riyadh. Turkish media and officials began blaming Damascus, Russia, and Iran for "inhumane" attacks on Idlib. Meanwhile, arms shipments surged. In the first two weeks of November alone, around 200 tanks, armored personnel carriers, and trucks carrying military supplies crossed the Turkish border into Idlib. Islamist militants attacking government forces had access to armored vehicles and combat drones, suggesting the "gifts" were specifically intended for them.

Celebration of Vultures

The victory of the Islamists also benefits other players in the "Middle East Game," namely Israel and the United States. The alignment of their interests with Ankara's plans cannot be described as coincidental, nor their indirect involvement in the escalation. Washington has been funding the "interim government" for many years, and there is substantial evidence of Israeli and American support for groups in Idlib.

Just over a week before the fighting began, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte visited Turkey. He was received by the heads of the Foreign and Defense Ministries, as well as President Erdoğan, who praised NATO's "commitment to collective security" and its military and political support for Kyiv. The parties discussed strengthening defense relations. Shortly afterward, Turkish Defense Minister Yaşar Güler announced progress in negotiations with the United States on supplying F-35 fighters. It is worth noting that this deal had been frozen after Ankara acquired the Russian S-400 system. Güler stated, "Now, Washington no longer has objections to Turkey's use of the S-400 system."

Shortly before the escalation, Western media reported on a message from the White House relayed to Assad via Emirati diplomats. It concerned a number of U.S. sanctions set to expire at the end of the year. Washington promised not to renew them if Damascus abandoned its alliance with Iran and severed Hezbollah's arms supply routes. It is likely that Syrian authorities rejected the offer, leading to the activation of "Plan B."

This aligns with the broader anti-Iran policy. In late November, the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency passed a resolution, proposed by the UK, Germany, and France with U.S. support, accusing Tehran of failing to cooperate with inspectors and increasing its uranium stockpile. In October, the largest package of U.S. sanctions in several years was imposed on Iran, targeting dozens of companies involved in oil, chemical industries, and shipping, as well as foreign firms caught trading with the Islamic Republic. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan stated, "These measures will help deprive Iran of financial resources used to support its missile program and terrorist groups that threaten the U.S. and its allies."

Israeli Enthusiasm

Israeli authorities are also jubilant. According to polls, two-thirds of Israeli citizens distrust Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government, and in the event of early elections, the ruling coalition would likely be defeated. Amid ongoing corruption investigations against the prime minister and an arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court, the political stakes for Netanyahu are dire. Meanwhile, delaying a reckoning through military ventures has become increasingly difficult. During two months of ground operations in Lebanon, Israeli forces advanced no more than 2–5 kilometers in some areas despite heavy bombardments. On November 27, Israeli authorities agreed to a ceasefire requiring their forces to withdraw from Lebanon.

Having failed in this direction, Tel Aviv decided to try its luck in Syria. In November, Israeli forces entered the demilitarized zone between Syria and the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, beginning to construct barriers and roads. The intensity of air raids increased. In the first ten days of November, the Israeli Air Force carried out eight attacks. For the first time, the targets included positions of Syrian forces near Idlib—in Al-Safira and Saraqib. These towns later became primary targets for militant offensives.

It is possible that Islamists received intelligence from Israel regarding the locations of Iranian advisors. On the first day of the attack, the head of the mission, General Qiumars Pourhashemi, was killed. Yedioth Ahronoth wrote that "Israel supported the offensive as an opportunity to weaken Syria, opening the door for change." After the fall of Damascus, Tel Aviv resorted to overt aggression, invading southern Syria and launching large-scale attacks on military targets—all with the silent approval of the new regime. Netanyahu described Assad's ouster as "a historic day in the history of the Middle East," acknowledging that it was a direct result of Israeli attacks on Iran and Hezbollah.

Western Delight

The jubilation in Western capitals is equally apparent. President Biden remarked, "The fall of Assad's regime is a fundamental act of justice." The U.S. hinted at bolstering its military presence in Syria. Exploiting chaos has become their modus operandi, recognizing that the most likely scenario is the de facto collapse of the country and prolonged conflict akin to Libya, Yemen, and Sudan.

A Final Assessment

The dramatic deterioration of the regional situation forces another conclusion. Claims that the Western world is in decline, being triumphantly replaced by a multipolar world represented by BRICS, are premature. The former continues to achieve its goals with great success, while the latter has yet to learn how to prioritize long-term interests over short-term gains.

13-16 Dec 2024